說投資(七) . 篩選標準(企業及管理層)
(承上文)
企業比管理層重要，因為優質的企業，不需要十分好的管理層也可以持續成長。
如企業是單純地依靠管理層(經營團隊)的經驗眼光而成長的話，管理層如意外做了一些笨決定(如和黃當年決定投資3G)，企業的打擊也可以是十分深重的。
對於判斷一個聰明人會否於將來一時失手、做出錯誤的決定，我可是亳無把握。
相比之下，如果一個平庸的人也可以經營得好的企業，這個才是最好的企業。投資於這些公司，將來可以持續增長的機會也就愈大。
蘋果電腦的Steve Jobs當年想招攬百事可樂的CEO John Sculley時曾說：「你想一輩子賣糖水，還是想改變世界？」
對的，如果我的角色是CEO，我當然希望改變世界，這可好玩得緊；
但如果我的角色換了是股東，糖水如可以賣一輩子都能繼續成長的話，這可比改變世界、或最終反被世界改變來得吸引。
賣百事這種"糖水"，也真簡單，不需像賣iPod的Steve Jobs般要時刻防範對手如Microsoft Zune的威脅，百事的發展模式已非常成熟，只是讓更多世界各地的人可以更方便地喝到糖水、每人的用量愈來愈多，工作也就完成大半了。
另一個例子是麥當勞，完全標準化的食物及經營模式，成長不過是找個好地點然後開新店而已。消費者見到有新麥當勞開業，自自然然便會來光顧，他們很清楚可以在麥當勞吃到甚麼，從來不會失望。
怎樣判斷一個企業是否優質？
這個問題太技術性，要詳細說的話，可要說很長很長。
(題外話：本站最為人垢病的地方是文章太長。但沒辦法，寫得精簡是要很花時間的，我沒有太多時間，想到甚麼寫甚麼便最好。)
為免令這blog變成教科書，所以，還是只說說個大概好了。
有個網站的問題問得很好，我想如果一間企業在以下這些問題都獲得正面答案的話，該也是可以長線投資的了。
(source: http://www.incrediblecharts.com/investing/value_investing.htm)
Value Investing
The critical questions in value investing are:
* At what rate will earnings (and dividends) grow over the investment period?
* What is the risk? Are we certain to receive our required minimum return (equivalent to a risk-free investment)?
* Can management be trusted to perform?
Neither of these factors can be answered with certainty, we have to make our best estimate after considering a number of factors.
Growth
Past Performance
* Do historic earnings (per share) show a strong upward trend?
* Do historic sales (per share) show a strong upward trend?
* Has management consistently achieved a high Return on Equity?
* Is the return from new investments high enough to justify expansion?
Free Cash Flow
* How much capital is needed to fund future growth? Where will this capital come from? Out of retained earnings? Out of new stock issues? Through increased debt?
* Are retained earnings available to fund growth? Are depreciation provisions adequate to fund the replacement of existing assets? Is new capital expenditure required just to retain existing business or is it available for new investment?
* Is the business a cash cow? Or is new growth dependent on large capital expenditures?
* Is growth dependent on large acquisitions? What is the company's track record with acquisitions?
* Is the company likely to experience changes in its effective tax rate? Will it pay a higher rate of tax in the future?
* Have dividends been maintained and regularly increased?
Regular Income
* Does the company receive regular income from repeat business or does it continually have to find new customers for its products and services? Are the products consumables, quickly used up and reordered, or does the company sell durables that will not need to be replaced for a number of years?
* Does the company provide a repeat service to business or private customers? How regular are the service payments?
New Markets
* Is the growth of the company dependent on it expanding away from its home base into new markets? Has it proved that it has the capability to expand into new markets? New cities? New states? International markets?
* Does it have high brand awareness in the new markets?
Profit Margins
* Profit margins are directly affected by the company's ability to withstand competition from existing and new competitors. Any evidence of product discounting or price wars should set the alarm bells ringing.
Consumer Monopoly
This is Warren Buffett's favorite. He looks for companies that have a sustainable competitive advantage:
* Does the company have a consumer monopoly?
* Does the company own strong brands that can withstand competition? Are retailers obliged to carry these brands?
* How reliant are customers on the product or service?
* Does the company have special skills or knowledge that are difficult for competitors to acquire?
* Is the company's knowledge protected by patents or copyright?
* Does the company own a distribution channel that is difficult for competitors to replicate?
* Can the company raise prices in line with inflation?
Threats
* Is there a threat from new competitors?
* Is there a threat from new technology?
* Is the company maintaining its competitive position? Is there sufficient spending on research and development? Is research and development producing results? New products? New patents?
* Is there a threat from alternative distribution channels?
* Is there a threat from substitute products?
* Are there indirect competitors? Other industries that may fill the same need?
Risk
* Is the company overly reliant on a single product?
* Is the company overly reliant on a single customer?
* Is the company overly reliant on a single supplier?
* Is the company overly reliant on a single individual?
* Is the company overly reliant on debt funding?
* Will the company be affected by any political changes? New taxes or subsidies? Monopoly legislation? Increased regulation or consumer protection? Environmental legislation? Labor regulation? Duties on imports?
* How are the companies relations with its employees?
Management Integrity
* How responsible are management in dealing with shareholders funds? Are decisions always made in the interests of shareholders?
* What is management's track record with new projects or acquisitions?
* Do management involve shareholders in the business or do they work on a "need to know" basis?
* Does a major shareholder have another agenda? Are they trying to create a family dynasty?
* Management Skill
* Do management involve employees in the business?
* Is there adequate profit participation and share incentives?
* Is there a climate of management excellence?
* Do management have proven industry experience?
* How have management fared with new ventures? Do they know their own limitations or have they strayed far from their industry base?
Financial Controls
* Are there strong financial controls?
* Is management cost-conscious or extravagant? A company that announces cost cuts after a poor performance has often taken its eye off costs during the good years.
如果對這一大堆問題大部份都有正面答案的話，那麼便可以計算該企業的合理價值了。
這也是一個很技術性的問題，也不在此多說了，找一本財務學的教科書或上www.investopedia.com看看也不錯。
簡而言之，找一間好的企業，以低於合理價格買入作長線投資，著重股息及業務的成長性，那便是安全又安全的投資了。
最後的幾句補充(個人觀點)：
1. cashflow statement > profit & loss statement
2. 巴菲特式價值投資(成長性的折現值) > 葛拉漢式價值投資(帳面值)
3. intangible assets > tangible assets
4. 留意企業的激進會計手法
5. 賣飛佛：Strong brand + low-involvement product + low product price + FMCG + habitual buy + long product life cycle + low capex
- 寫到悶，說投資系列(暫時)完 -
企業比管理層重要，因為優質的企業，不需要十分好的管理層也可以持續成長。
如企業是單純地依靠管理層(經營團隊)的經驗眼光而成長的話，管理層如意外做了一些笨決定(如和黃當年決定投資3G)，企業的打擊也可以是十分深重的。
對於判斷一個聰明人會否於將來一時失手、做出錯誤的決定，我可是亳無把握。
相比之下，如果一個平庸的人也可以經營得好的企業，這個才是最好的企業。投資於這些公司，將來可以持續增長的機會也就愈大。
蘋果電腦的Steve Jobs當年想招攬百事可樂的CEO John Sculley時曾說：「你想一輩子賣糖水，還是想改變世界？」
對的，如果我的角色是CEO，我當然希望改變世界，這可好玩得緊；
但如果我的角色換了是股東，糖水如可以賣一輩子都能繼續成長的話，這可比改變世界、或最終反被世界改變來得吸引。
賣百事這種"糖水"，也真簡單，不需像賣iPod的Steve Jobs般要時刻防範對手如Microsoft Zune的威脅，百事的發展模式已非常成熟，只是讓更多世界各地的人可以更方便地喝到糖水、每人的用量愈來愈多，工作也就完成大半了。
另一個例子是麥當勞，完全標準化的食物及經營模式，成長不過是找個好地點然後開新店而已。消費者見到有新麥當勞開業，自自然然便會來光顧，他們很清楚可以在麥當勞吃到甚麼，從來不會失望。
怎樣判斷一個企業是否優質？
這個問題太技術性，要詳細說的話，可要說很長很長。
(題外話：本站最為人垢病的地方是文章太長。但沒辦法，寫得精簡是要很花時間的，我沒有太多時間，想到甚麼寫甚麼便最好。)
為免令這blog變成教科書，所以，還是只說說個大概好了。
有個網站的問題問得很好，我想如果一間企業在以下這些問題都獲得正面答案的話，該也是可以長線投資的了。
(source: http://www.incrediblecharts.com/investing/value_investing.htm)
Value Investing
The critical questions in value investing are:
* At what rate will earnings (and dividends) grow over the investment period?
* What is the risk? Are we certain to receive our required minimum return (equivalent to a risk-free investment)?
* Can management be trusted to perform?
Neither of these factors can be answered with certainty, we have to make our best estimate after considering a number of factors.
Growth
Past Performance
* Do historic earnings (per share) show a strong upward trend?
* Do historic sales (per share) show a strong upward trend?
* Has management consistently achieved a high Return on Equity?
* Is the return from new investments high enough to justify expansion?
Free Cash Flow
* How much capital is needed to fund future growth? Where will this capital come from? Out of retained earnings? Out of new stock issues? Through increased debt?
* Are retained earnings available to fund growth? Are depreciation provisions adequate to fund the replacement of existing assets? Is new capital expenditure required just to retain existing business or is it available for new investment?
* Is the business a cash cow? Or is new growth dependent on large capital expenditures?
* Is growth dependent on large acquisitions? What is the company's track record with acquisitions?
* Is the company likely to experience changes in its effective tax rate? Will it pay a higher rate of tax in the future?
* Have dividends been maintained and regularly increased?
Regular Income
* Does the company receive regular income from repeat business or does it continually have to find new customers for its products and services? Are the products consumables, quickly used up and reordered, or does the company sell durables that will not need to be replaced for a number of years?
* Does the company provide a repeat service to business or private customers? How regular are the service payments?
New Markets
* Is the growth of the company dependent on it expanding away from its home base into new markets? Has it proved that it has the capability to expand into new markets? New cities? New states? International markets?
* Does it have high brand awareness in the new markets?
Profit Margins
* Profit margins are directly affected by the company's ability to withstand competition from existing and new competitors. Any evidence of product discounting or price wars should set the alarm bells ringing.
Consumer Monopoly
This is Warren Buffett's favorite. He looks for companies that have a sustainable competitive advantage:
* Does the company have a consumer monopoly?
* Does the company own strong brands that can withstand competition? Are retailers obliged to carry these brands?
* How reliant are customers on the product or service?
* Does the company have special skills or knowledge that are difficult for competitors to acquire?
* Is the company's knowledge protected by patents or copyright?
* Does the company own a distribution channel that is difficult for competitors to replicate?
* Can the company raise prices in line with inflation?
Threats
* Is there a threat from new competitors?
* Is there a threat from new technology?
* Is the company maintaining its competitive position? Is there sufficient spending on research and development? Is research and development producing results? New products? New patents?
* Is there a threat from alternative distribution channels?
* Is there a threat from substitute products?
* Are there indirect competitors? Other industries that may fill the same need?
Risk
* Is the company overly reliant on a single product?
* Is the company overly reliant on a single customer?
* Is the company overly reliant on a single supplier?
* Is the company overly reliant on a single individual?
* Is the company overly reliant on debt funding?
* Will the company be affected by any political changes? New taxes or subsidies? Monopoly legislation? Increased regulation or consumer protection? Environmental legislation? Labor regulation? Duties on imports?
* How are the companies relations with its employees?
Management Integrity
* How responsible are management in dealing with shareholders funds? Are decisions always made in the interests of shareholders?
* What is management's track record with new projects or acquisitions?
* Do management involve shareholders in the business or do they work on a "need to know" basis?
* Does a major shareholder have another agenda? Are they trying to create a family dynasty?
* Management Skill
* Do management involve employees in the business?
* Is there adequate profit participation and share incentives?
* Is there a climate of management excellence?
* Do management have proven industry experience?
* How have management fared with new ventures? Do they know their own limitations or have they strayed far from their industry base?
Financial Controls
* Are there strong financial controls?
* Is management cost-conscious or extravagant? A company that announces cost cuts after a poor performance has often taken its eye off costs during the good years.
如果對這一大堆問題大部份都有正面答案的話，那麼便可以計算該企業的合理價值了。
這也是一個很技術性的問題，也不在此多說了，找一本財務學的教科書或上www.investopedia.com看看也不錯。
簡而言之，找一間好的企業，以低於合理價格買入作長線投資，著重股息及業務的成長性，那便是安全又安全的投資了。
最後的幾句補充(個人觀點)：
1. cashflow statement > profit & loss statement
2. 巴菲特式價值投資(成長性的折現值) > 葛拉漢式價值投資(帳面值)
3. intangible assets > tangible assets
4. 留意企業的激進會計手法
5. 賣飛佛：Strong brand + low-involvement product + low product price + FMCG + habitual buy + long product life cycle + low capex
- 寫到悶，說投資系列(暫時)完 -
posted by Ben at 01:34
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home